The fight for the nomination is on and this Friday Hillary is back in New Hampshire to campaign. One thing seems to be a given, Clinton will win the New Hampshire primary.
First let’s start with a brief history lesson: A Clinton has never lost the Granite State during a primary or general election, except during the 1992 New Hampshire primary. Bill Clinton made a comeback in 1992 (second place) and became the comeback kid during the New Hampshire presidential primary. A few months later he won the state and its four electoral votes. Four years later he won the state again against Bob Dole. What about Hillary? After the devastating defeat during the 2008 Iowa caucus, she won the New Hampshire primary just a few days later. Will New Hampshire be Hillaryland in 2016? You betcha.
Let’s flip the question. Can anyone beat Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire? Does any candidate have even the slightest chance to win the Iowa caucus and upset the world a few days later in New Hampshire? If Hillary wins Iowa it’s over and locked up after the primary in South Carolina. Three strikes and everyone else is definitely out. Even with a victory in Iowa it will still be hard to win in New Hampshire. The Obama campaign did experience this in a big way in 2008. If the Obama campaign with a tsunami of momentum could not win, will it be possible for another candidate?
The answer is no. It’s a long time to the primary but nobody will beat Hillary in Hillaryland. Bill Clinton promised to be with the people of New Hampshire “till the last dogs dies”. It’s the second home of the Clinton’s, at least on the campaign trail. It seems that New Hampshire also will be with the Clinton’s till the last Clinton votes are cast in the ballot box. History often repeats itself and the 2016 New Hampshire primary will not be the exception to the rule.
Written by Steiner Ottesen – HRC 2.0 is a monthly column about Hillary’s 2016-campaign. The main themes will be campaign strategy and analysis. Photo: Marc Nozell.